Probability that a man will outlive a woman in Tokelau
Tokelau: Probability that a man will outlive a woman was 40.1% in 2023. ▼ Falling
Probability that a man will outlive a woman in Tokelau, 1950–2023
Source: Human Mortality Database (2025); UN, World Population Prospects (2024); Bergeron-Boucher et al. (2022) – processed by Our World in Data. Measured in %.
Analysis
The most recent figure for probability that a man will outlive a woman in Tokelau is 40.1%, measured in 2023. That is the lowest value across all 74 years on record.
The figure is down 0.9% over ten years.
Over the whole period, probability that a man will outlive a woman in Tokelau peaked at 49.3% in 1981 and was at its lowest, 40.1%, in 2023.
That places Tokelau 99th out of 236 countries with data for 2023, putting it in the middle of the range.
The long-run direction has been consistently falling across the 74 years of available data.
Probability that a man will outlive a woman in Tokelau, year by year
| Year | % | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 43.9% | — |
| 1951 | 43.8% | -0.3% |
| 1952 | 43.5% | -0.5% |
| 1953 | 43.7% | +0.3% |
| 1954 | 43.5% | -0.3% |
| 1955 | 43.6% | +0.0% |
| 1956 | 43.6% | +0.0% |
| 1957 | 43.6% | +0.1% |
| 1958 | 43.7% | +0.3% |
| 1959 | 43.8% | +0.2% |
| 1960 | 43.9% | +0.3% |
| 1961 | 44.1% | +0.4% |
| 1962 | 44.3% | +0.4% |
| 1963 | 44.5% | +0.6% |
| 1964 | 44.7% | +0.4% |
| 1965 | 45.1% | +0.8% |
| 1966 | 45.5% | +1.1% |
| 1967 | 45.9% | +0.7% |
| 1968 | 46.2% | +0.8% |
| 1969 | 46.6% | +0.8% |
| 1970 | 47.0% | +0.8% |
| 1971 | 47.5% | +1.0% |
| 1972 | 47.8% | +0.7% |
| 1973 | 48.1% | +0.6% |
| 1974 | 48.5% | +0.8% |
| 1975 | 48.7% | +0.5% |
| 1976 | 48.9% | +0.4% |
| 1977 | 49.1% | +0.3% |
| 1978 | 49.2% | +0.3% |
| 1979 | 49.2% | +0.0% |
| 1980 | 49.2% | +0.1% |
| 1981 | 49.3% | +0.0% |
| 1982 | 49.0% | -0.4% |
| 1983 | 48.8% | -0.5% |
| 1984 | 48.4% | -0.9% |
| 1985 | 48.0% | -0.8% |
| 1986 | 47.4% | -1.1% |
| 1987 | 46.8% | -1.3% |
| 1988 | 46.2% | -1.3% |
| 1989 | 45.6% | -1.3% |
| 1990 | 45.0% | -1.3% |
| 1991 | 44.5% | -1.0% |
| 1992 | 44.1% | -0.9% |
| 1993 | 44.0% | -0.4% |
| 1994 | 43.8% | -0.3% |
| 1995 | 43.8% | -0.2% |
| 1996 | 43.7% | -0.0% |
| 1997 | 43.6% | -0.2% |
| 1998 | 43.8% | +0.3% |
| 1999 | 43.6% | -0.5% |
| 2000 | 43.2% | -0.8% |
| 2001 | 43.0% | -0.6% |
| 2002 | 42.6% | -0.8% |
| 2003 | 42.3% | -0.8% |
| 2004 | 42.0% | -0.8% |
| 2005 | 41.7% | -0.6% |
| 2006 | 41.5% | -0.6% |
| 2007 | 41.2% | -0.5% |
| 2008 | 41.0% | -0.5% |
| 2009 | 40.9% | -0.3% |
| 2010 | 40.8% | -0.3% |
| 2011 | 40.7% | -0.3% |
| 2012 | 40.6% | -0.2% |
| 2013 | 40.4% | -0.3% |
| 2014 | 40.5% | +0.1% |
| 2015 | 40.5% | +0.1% |
| 2016 | 40.6% | +0.1% |
| 2017 | 40.5% | -0.3% |
| 2018 | 40.4% | -0.1% |
| 2019 | 40.3% | -0.2% |
| 2020 | 40.3% | -0.1% |
| 2021 | 40.1% | -0.4% |
| 2022 | 40.1% | -0.1% |
| 2023 | 40.1% | -0.0% |
Averages by decade
| Decade | Average | Lowest | Highest | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950s | 43.7% | 43.5% | 43.9% | 10 |
| 1960s | 45.1% | 43.9% | 46.6% | 10 |
| 1970s | 48.4% | 47.0% | 49.2% | 10 |
| 1980s | 47.9% | 45.6% | 49.3% | 10 |
| 1990s | 44.0% | 43.6% | 45.0% | 10 |
| 2000s | 42.0% | 40.9% | 43.2% | 10 |
| 2010s | 40.5% | 40.3% | 40.8% | 10 |
| 2020s | 40.1% | 40.1% | 40.3% | 4 |
Countries ranked near Tokelau
More gender data for Tokelau
- Share of women who are obese 74.3% (2024)
- Share of women who are overweight or obese 91.8% (2024)
- Share of overweight men vs. women 88.5% (2024)
- Share of women who are married or in a union 2.0% (2011)
- Share of women aged 15–49 who are married or in a union 54.5% (2050)
- Sex ratio at birth 104.35 males per 100 females (2023)
- Sex ratio at age 5 90.91 males per 100 females (2023)
- Sex ratio at birth vs. at five years old 104.35 males per 100 females (2023)
- Probability of dying that year, among females 0.3% (2023)
- Sex ratio at age 60 37.5 males per 100 females (2023)
Frequently asked questions
- What is probability that a man will outlive a woman in Tokelau?
- Probability that a man will outlive a woman in Tokelau was 40.1% in 2023, according to Human Mortality Database (2025); UN, World Population Prospects (2024); Bergeron-Boucher et al. (2022) – processed by Our World in Data.
- What is the highest probability that a man will outlive a woman recorded in Tokelau?
- The highest recorded value was 49.3% in 1981.
- What is the lowest probability that a man will outlive a woman recorded in Tokelau?
- The lowest recorded value was 40.1% in 2023.
- How does Tokelau rank for probability that a man will outlive a woman?
- Tokelau ranks 99th out of 236 countries with data for 2023.
- Is probability that a man will outlive a woman rising or falling in Tokelau?
- Over the last ten years it is down 0.9%. The long-run trend across the full record is falling.
- Where does this Tokelau data come from?
- The figures come from Human Mortality Database (2025); UN, World Population Prospects (2024); Bergeron-Boucher et al. (2022) – processed by Our World in Data, published as part of Probability that a man will outlive a woman. Statizoid updates them automatically from the source API.
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About this data
Probability that a male will live longer than a female if both are randomly selected from the population at birth.