Probability that a man will outlive a woman in South Africa
South Africa: Probability that a man will outlive a woman was 39.0% in 2023. ▼ Falling
Probability that a man will outlive a woman in South Africa, 1950–2023
Source: Human Mortality Database (2025); UN, World Population Prospects (2024); Bergeron-Boucher et al. (2022) – processed by Our World in Data. Measured in %.
Analysis
South Africa recorded 39.0% for probability that a man will outlive a woman in 2023.
That represents a change of up 0.1% on the previous year and down 4.6% over ten years.
Over the whole period, probability that a man will outlive a woman in South Africa peaked at 47.7% in 1950 and was at its lowest, 38.5%, in 1991.
South Africa ranks 125th of 236 countries on this measure, in the middle of the range.
The long-run direction has been consistently falling across the 74 years of available data.
Probability that a man will outlive a woman in South Africa, year by year
| Year | % | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 47.7% | — |
| 1951 | 47.5% | -0.4% |
| 1952 | 47.3% | -0.4% |
| 1953 | 47.0% | -0.6% |
| 1954 | 46.7% | -0.7% |
| 1955 | 46.5% | -0.6% |
| 1956 | 46.1% | -0.8% |
| 1957 | 45.7% | -0.8% |
| 1958 | 45.5% | -0.5% |
| 1959 | 45.3% | -0.5% |
| 1960 | 45.1% | -0.4% |
| 1961 | 44.7% | -0.9% |
| 1962 | 44.8% | +0.1% |
| 1963 | 44.6% | -0.3% |
| 1964 | 44.6% | -0.1% |
| 1965 | 44.5% | -0.2% |
| 1966 | 44.4% | -0.2% |
| 1967 | 44.2% | -0.4% |
| 1968 | 44.1% | -0.3% |
| 1969 | 44.0% | -0.3% |
| 1970 | 43.8% | -0.5% |
| 1971 | 43.7% | -0.1% |
| 1972 | 43.8% | +0.3% |
| 1973 | 43.8% | +0.1% |
| 1974 | 43.8% | -0.1% |
| 1975 | 43.9% | +0.1% |
| 1976 | 43.5% | -0.7% |
| 1977 | 43.2% | -0.9% |
| 1978 | 43.0% | -0.3% |
| 1979 | 42.8% | -0.5% |
| 1980 | 42.4% | -0.9% |
| 1981 | 42.2% | -0.4% |
| 1982 | 41.9% | -0.7% |
| 1983 | 41.7% | -0.6% |
| 1984 | 41.3% | -1.0% |
| 1985 | 40.7% | -1.3% |
| 1986 | 40.2% | -1.3% |
| 1987 | 39.9% | -0.7% |
| 1988 | 39.3% | -1.6% |
| 1989 | 39.0% | -0.7% |
| 1990 | 38.7% | -0.9% |
| 1991 | 38.5% | -0.3% |
| 1992 | 38.6% | +0.1% |
| 1993 | 38.7% | +0.3% |
| 1994 | 39.1% | +0.9% |
| 1995 | 39.6% | +1.4% |
| 1996 | 40.1% | +1.3% |
| 1997 | 40.6% | +1.3% |
| 1998 | 41.1% | +1.3% |
| 1999 | 41.6% | +1.2% |
| 2000 | 42.2% | +1.5% |
| 2001 | 43.4% | +2.7% |
| 2002 | 44.2% | +1.9% |
| 2003 | 44.7% | +1.1% |
| 2004 | 45.4% | +1.6% |
| 2005 | 45.9% | +1.2% |
| 2006 | 45.5% | -0.9% |
| 2007 | 44.8% | -1.6% |
| 2008 | 44.1% | -1.6% |
| 2009 | 43.5% | -1.4% |
| 2010 | 43.0% | -1.1% |
| 2011 | 42.0% | -2.3% |
| 2012 | 41.5% | -1.1% |
| 2013 | 40.9% | -1.5% |
| 2014 | 40.4% | -1.2% |
| 2015 | 40.5% | +0.2% |
| 2016 | 40.0% | -1.2% |
| 2017 | 39.8% | -0.3% |
| 2018 | 39.9% | +0.1% |
| 2019 | 39.9% | +0.1% |
| 2020 | 40.7% | +1.9% |
| 2021 | 40.9% | +0.7% |
| 2022 | 38.9% | -4.9% |
| 2023 | 39.0% | +0.1% |
Averages by decade
| Decade | Average | Lowest | Highest | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950s | 46.5% | 45.3% | 47.7% | 10 |
| 1960s | 44.5% | 44.0% | 45.1% | 10 |
| 1970s | 43.5% | 42.8% | 43.9% | 10 |
| 1980s | 40.9% | 39.0% | 42.4% | 10 |
| 1990s | 39.7% | 38.5% | 41.6% | 10 |
| 2000s | 44.4% | 42.2% | 45.9% | 10 |
| 2010s | 40.8% | 39.8% | 43.0% | 10 |
| 2020s | 39.9% | 38.9% | 40.9% | 4 |
Countries ranked near South Africa
More gender data for South Africa
- Child population (UN estimates and projections) 17,151 (2030)
- Child population (UN estimates and projections) (0-14), annual growth 0.6591 % change on previous year (2030)
- Age population, age 00, female, interpolated 570,099 (2025)
- Age population, age 00, male, interpolated 589,533 (2025)
- Age population, age 01, female, interpolated 570,599 (2025)
- Age population, age 01, male, interpolated 589,626 (2025)
- Age population, age 02, female, interpolated 569,634 (2025)
- Age population, age 02, male, interpolated 588,323 (2025)
- Age population, age 03, female, interpolated 594,743 (2025)
- Age population, age 03, male, interpolated 603,304 (2025)
Frequently asked questions
- What is probability that a man will outlive a woman in South Africa?
- Probability that a man will outlive a woman in South Africa was 39.0% in 2023, according to Human Mortality Database (2025); UN, World Population Prospects (2024); Bergeron-Boucher et al. (2022) – processed by Our World in Data.
- What is the highest probability that a man will outlive a woman recorded in South Africa?
- The highest recorded value was 47.7% in 1950.
- What is the lowest probability that a man will outlive a woman recorded in South Africa?
- The lowest recorded value was 38.5% in 1991.
- How does South Africa rank for probability that a man will outlive a woman?
- South Africa ranks 125th out of 236 countries with data for 2023.
- Is probability that a man will outlive a woman rising or falling in South Africa?
- Over the last ten years it is down 4.6%. The long-run trend across the full record is falling.
- Where does this South Africa data come from?
- The figures come from Human Mortality Database (2025); UN, World Population Prospects (2024); Bergeron-Boucher et al. (2022) – processed by Our World in Data, published as part of Probability that a man will outlive a woman. Statizoid updates them automatically from the source API.
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About this data
Probability that a male will live longer than a female if both are randomly selected from the population at birth.